China will not invade Taiwan in the next five to ten years because it simply cannot or to put it in another context, China will not be ready in military terms as their own policy planning demonstrates.
Less than ten years have passed since the Gutian Military Political Work Conference in 2014, the starting point under President Xi Jinping when the development for the people’s military started in order to cement the political loyalty of the armed forces. Of course, the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation is solid and the above-mentioned procedure serves exactly that dream, while the revitalization of China’s armed forces to build a strong military is a part of that planning.
China aims to adapt its military in the changes that appear in the international arena and its national security environment, whereas the Party’s stated goal is to strengthen the armed forces in the new era. It is clear that China’s military since 2014, entered a transformation phase that can be characterized as a never-ending journey, but for such a vast organization, measurable results can only be seen after one or two decades.
Although China’s economic growth has been amazing the last 25 years, one should bear in mind that the military is not an economic organization or a company and, for that reason the progress cannot be expected to move in the same speed. Anyone that has served in the armed forces can understand that due to the working environment and the discipline that is necessary, there is a natural force of conservatism, something natural in the military mentality that makes changes move slowly, in comparison with the outside world or the markets.
The way China has chosen to move forward is unique and responds to its system of governance, it includes an in-depth study of the history of the Communist Party of China as a source of strength for building a strong military, they have conducted educational activities on revolutionary traditions in historical museums for the personnel of the armed forces and special commemoration activities, like the transfer of the remains of 825 Chinese People’s Volunteers (CPV) martyrs, from the Republic of Korea in 8 batches to the CPV martyrs’ cemetery in Shenyang.
In this vein, there was an in-depth reshaping of the military leadership and command system, a modern force structure has been established with Chinese characteristics able to win in the current battlefield where information dominance is a prerequisite. Science and technology are key parts of that effort in order to acquire a leading place in cutting-edge technology.
In terms of personnel management, China is preparing the military for joint operations, it upgrades military academies, it secures loyalty of the NCO corps to the Party and calls also for civilian talent to be a member of the military, while in parallel tries to establish respect for the military vocation by the whole of society and leverages the morale through the narrative “no fear of hardship or death”.
The military also communicates its social image by engaging in activities in flood control, in helping ethnic minorities and in poverty alleviation inside the country. In the same context, it participates in regional security dialogue and makes important contributions to regional security and stability. In the international arena, China’s armed forces have been providing the international community with more and more public security goods, China is a major contributor in UN missions, underlining always that any activity is in accordance with relevant UN Security Council resolutions.
Other examples of China’s contribution to the world include, the mission code-named “Mission Harmony” that has provided humanitarian and medical services overseas to 43 countries and regions and to over 230000 people, and the previous year, after the massive volcanic eruption in Tonga in January 2022, China stepped up to deliver humanitarian disaster relief operations. Chinese peacekeepers are not only guardians of peace but also ambassadors of friendship, emphasizing their respect to the international legal framework under the United Nations.
China’s desire to achieve unification with Taiwan is a fact, the question is when and how? Calculations about whether to use force against Taiwan are always on the table and of course one should have in mind that, time perception is different in the Western and in the Chinese culture. From Beijing’s perspective, the war in Ukraine offers a realistic preview of the costs China would likely bear if it resorted to war.
Chinese leadership will examine Russia’s mistakes and adjust their plans. Let us see an assumption, Russia achieved in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea, a strategic and operational objective that amazed the West and caused surprise but, what would happen if Russia tried to disappear Ukraine from the map as an independent state that period? The facts have proved that, Ukraine has been preparing for almost 8 years to confront Russia and with the help of its western allies has achieved measurable results.
China from its side, studies all these developments and is preparing accordingly. When the Chinese leadership believes that its hard power is at the desired level, we forecast that the world will experience swift actions against Taiwan’s integrity. Till that moment, China will grow stronger to counter possible sanctions from the West, for example China will attempt to produce critical technologies such as semiconductors domestically, reduce its reliance on the U.S. financial system, and support an alternative to SWIFT.
The American and the Chinese side cannot change each-other, but they are placing the pieces on the chessboard today, to organize how they will compete tomorrow in the security environment of the Indo-Pacific. This analysis of the development of China’s national defense structure is one step towards a better understanding of the Chinese strategy and the way China plans to move in the future concerning Taiwan.
Closing this article, we will try to connect the aforementioned, that include basically the military element of power, with the speech on the 4th of June by General Li Shangfu, state councilor and Minister of National Defense of China, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore to illustrate the wider view of the Chinese policy.
What is the strategic narrative of China? China’s reunification with Taiwan, is an overriding historical trend and an unstoppable course. This historical error is a result of weakness and chaos in China in the past years.
What is the future state? It will be resolved as national rejuvenation becomes a reality. China must be and will be reunified.
The road, meaning how to get there; China will strive for the prospects of peaceful reunification with at-most sincerity and greatest efforts, but it will make no promise to renounce the use of force. If anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese military will not hesitate for a second. China will fear no opponents and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, regardless of any cost.
The war in Ukraine keeps the interest of the security professionals and organizations today, one could name it as the switching point towards a new world order, but the future of the Asia Pacific probably will determine the way the world politics will be evolved. Everyone speaks today about the arising multipolarity, but the way this multipolarity will be formed we assess that it depends if tension, war, consensus or negotiations prevail in the area.
As General Li Shangfu pointed out regarding the China-US relationship, China believes that a major country should behave like one. Instead of provoking block confrontation for self-interests, it should bear in mind the interests of all, resolve differences through exchanges and cooperation and meet the aspirations of countries in the world. China and the US have different systems and are different in many other ways. However, this should not keep the two sides from seeking common ground and common interests to grow bilateral ties and deepen cooperation.
As for the US side he points out, it needs to act with sincerity, match its words with deeds and take concrete actions together with China to stabilize the relations and prevent further deterioration. China and the US should properly handle differences, brave difficulties and find the right way to get along. The world is big enough for countries including China and the US to grow together. The right way for China and the US to get alone is following the three principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.
The Proorasis team monitors the developments and tries to extract certain indicators. Concerning the Taiwan question, it is just one piece in the big picture of global politics and by extension in the China-US relationship. For now, we have concluded that China is not ready to move towards military action and invade Taiwan, but the clock is ticking.